緊急地震速報による震度予測の精度に関する研究

Abstract

The Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) started delivering Real-time Earthquake Information System since February，2005. The Disaster Prevention Research Center(DPREC)，Aichi Institute of Technology，began serving these informations in about 30 companies in Mikawa area. Seismic intensity and arriving time of shear wave can be predicted by source information (Magnitude， hypocenter and time) of the earthquake occurred near the Mikawa area. The companies can start action for preventing earthquake disaster 5･20 seconds before arriving strong motions. The problems in this system will be the precision of seismic intensity predicted. The method for predicting seismic intensity by using Real-time Earthquake Information by JMA was discussed. The seismic intensities in 30 sites in Mikawa area were predicted and compared with those calculated by strong motion data observed by seismometer net-work installed by DPREC. The new method for predicting seismic intensity and arriving time precisely was suggested in this paper.